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SA85-90 “combined” and more actuarial sloppiness
I know of far too many actuaries who think that the “average” SA85/90 table is an appropriate base for their insured lives mortality assumption. It’s not. It’s also a good example of “actuarial...
View ArticleSummary of November links
These are some of the stories I’ve followed or commented on in November: Pro-cyclical fiscal policy from Nigeria. Knee-jerk reactions are usually not the right answer ow.ly/EQawj eVoting seems...
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Defining things and Star Wars
This reminded me a little of trying to come up with the “right” risk taxonomy or risk management framework. There are so many different ways to draw boundaries, none which is perfect and many which are...
View ArticleTwin Peaks update Dec 2014
Treasury has released a new draft of the “Twin Peaks” or “Financial Sector Regulation Bill“. Plenty to work through here, as with the Retail Distribution Review draft and more, but here is the link if...
View ArticleForeign land ownership
Foreign person? Foreign company? Foreign trust? Local company owned by foreigners? Local company owned partly by foreigners? Foreign company owned by locals? Local company owned by locals with debt...
View ArticleEconomic growth during and after Apartheid and the real problem with 1%
I read a letter from Pali Lehohla on news24 this weekend. Lehohla, the head of StatsSA, disagreed with a report by DaMina Advisors on economic growth in South Africa during and post the apartheid era....
View ArticleThe worst insurance policy in the world
Aviva in France is still dealing with having written the worst insurance policy in the world. From the sounds of things, they weren’t alone in this foible. It’s also hard to say as an outsider what the...
View ArticleSouth Africa ranks 2nd in financial inclusion study
The Brookings Financial and Digital Inclusion Project measures South Africa one place behind Kenya in terms of financial inclusion. I’m still working my way through the full report, but Kenya’s score...
View ArticleModest data
I’m as excited as the next guy about the possibilities of “Big Data!” but possibly more excited about the opportunities presented by plain old “Modest Data”. I believe there is plenty of scope for...
View ArticleCredit Life Aside: banning sale of credit life alongside lending?
Some markets have banned sale of insurance alongside lending Another way to deal with the problem of competition in credit life is to simply not permit the sale of insurance at the same time as the...
View ArticleCollective nouns for cats
In my ASSA convention presentation on systemic risk last week, I took pains to highlight the difference between real systemic risk and mere catastrophic claim risk or even concentration risk. In this...
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Move over cholera, here’s the Black Death
The Black Death, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, wiped out 30 to 50 percent of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1351 Now, South Africa has been placed on high alert for a potential plague...
View ArticleThe importance (or not?) of actuarial exams
Eri k Wenzel posed a provocative question on his LinkedIn stream. I began my reply there, but the character limit foiled me. Erik asks: “Thought experiment– what if there were no more actuarial exams?”...
View ArticleCunningham’s law
Briefest of posts today, but amusing to me mostly for its accuracy. Cunningham’s Law states “the best way to get the right answer on the internet is not to ask a question; it’s to post the wrong answer.”
View ArticleAlternatives to uncanny
This is a rant about people who are wrong on the internet. Also, why Huffington Post is a platform for big bad wolves. And why the asymmetric information and importance of financial advice means it’s...
View ArticleDownwards counterfactual analysis
Stress and scenario testing are important risk assessment tools. They also provide useful ways to prepare in advance for adverse scenarios so that management doesn’t have to create everything from...
View ArticleBitcoins, deflation and the slightly silly impact of loss
I think Bitcoins and the Blockchain are amazingly cool. I still don’t think Bitcoins are a useful currency and I worry that many of Bitcoin’s biggests fans also like the gold standard, Austrian...
View ArticleWhy isn’t there more micro insurance in South Africa
After a recent Actuarial Society sessional presentation I gave on micro insurance and the regulatory developments, I was asked why there aren’t more micro insurers operating in South Africa. Here is a...
View ArticleSlides from micro insurance sessional meeting in 2018
I had several requests for these slides. At some point they should also be available on ASSA’s website, but that process seems to take a curiously long time. Here are the Micro insurance sessional 2018...
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